Week 1 Overreactions to Avoid
The media and fans overreact to outcomes of Week 1. Here are some to avoid.
Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Thursday 8 PM
The Cowboys’ defense is still horrible
Dallas has the unfortunate luck of playing the league’s most talented offense in their first game. With serious concerns in their secondary at both corner and safety it could get ugly against the vaunted Buccaneers weapons. However, I wouldn’t overreact to it because the disparity in talent is so significant it would be difficult for nearly any secondary to do relatively well against this offense. As long as the defense is competing and there are signs that some of the Cowboys’ younger defenders such as LB Micah Parsons and CB Trevon Diggs show that they belong on the field against the Bucs offense it should be a sign that the Cowboys’ defense is not what they were a year ago.
Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts-Sunday 1 PM
Shane Waldron’s offense looks lethargic
The Seahawks are currently going through a schematic offensive overhaul in the offseason with the hiring of OC Shane Waldron. Waldron is a disciple of Rams HC Sean McVay and will adopt a nearly similar offense.1 I think for any team getting used to a new way of playing a specific scheme whether that be offense or defense that is a growing period to accustomed to it. The Colts are a defense led by DC Matt Eberflus that is extremely smart and live to prevent any significant plays from happening. Look for the Colts to make life quite difficult as they will want to limit Seahawks’ receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett from making explosive plays. All in all some benefit of the doubt should be given to the Seahawks offense as they will likely look better as the season progresses.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans-Sunday 1 PM
The Jaguars defense appears clearly improved
It’s difficult to not look at the Texans offense and think how this team will be able to score more than 30 points at any point this season. However, they could make some defenses2 look better than they actually are. It is true that the Jaguars made significant additions to their defense this offseason headlined by CB Shaquil Griffin. However, there is still a lack of a stalwart defender on this roster that will makes offenses be worried. While I do not doubt that the Jaguars will have a better defense this season than last, that is not saying much. It will be heavily reliant on players such as EDGE Josh Allen and CB CJ Henderson to continue to improve and become defensive cornerstones for the foreseeable future.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons-Sunday 1PM
Rookie TE Kyle Pitts is not amazing
For most rookie it is difficult to make an impact in their debut season, especially for tight ends. However, Kyle Pitts looks to be the most talented tight end to come into the league in recent memory. With the movement skills of a wide receiver and elite athleticism for the position, Pitts should become one of the league’s better tight ends sooner rather than later. Still, I heed caution to those that will doubt him if he does not light the world on fire this Sunday. Now it is possible that he does tear up the Eagles mediocre defense on Sunday, but if not let’s no go rushing to saying that Pitts or anything that absurd.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Washington Football Team-Sunday 1PM
The Chargers revamping their offensive line did not matter
One of the most important aspects to consider when evaluating an offensive line is continuity. As five linemen play together for longer periods of time they tend to just play more consistently and are aware of each other’s strengths and weaknesses. The Chargers offensive line features four new starters3 and are going up against arguably the most talented defensive line in the league with Washington. While I do not expect the Chargers line to be turnstiles since they project to be an above average offensive line this upcoming season. I just would not expect a standout performance against Washington. As long as they keep QB Justin Herbert upright and without injury that is all you can ask for.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills-Sunday 1PM
Josh Allen regression is starting now
Bills quarterback Josh Allen had one of the most surreal breakout seasons in NFL history last year becoming a fringe MVP candidate. Now I do not think it is crazy to expect some small regression over the course of the entire season. I just wouldn’t overreact to an average showing in the first week against the Steelers. The Steelers boast one of the league’s top defenses that should bring a challenge to the Bills’ offensive line and weapons. While the Bills aren’t bereft of talent on offense, outside of Josh Allen and WR Stefon Diggs there isn’t exactly another clear star to rely upon. While WR Cole Beasley had a solid year in 2020 and OT Dion Dawkins4 is an above average player there is a decent chance that Pittsburgh limits Allen’s options through the ground and air.
San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions-Sunday 1PM
Why did the 49ers draft Trey Lance?
The 49ers boast one of the league’s most talented offenses and play callers in Kyle Shanahan. Even with QB Jimmy Garoppolo starting they should have little issue scoring easily against the well-below average Lions defense. So even if say Jimmy Garoppolo throws for over 300 yards 3 touchdowns and completes nearly 70% of his passes, there should not be much talk if at all why they drafted Trey Lance with the 3rd overall pick. Trey Lance is likely to be on the bench for a good chunk of the season and with good reason. Garoppolo should still be starter quality in the offense, and Lance has not played a full season of football since 2019 when he was just 19 years old playing against FCS competition. While I fully believe Lance will be the starter at some point this season5 and offers a higher upside for this team due to his dynamic running ability. It is not time for people to doubt the selection of Lance especially due to the context of what this game is.
Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals-Sunday 1PM
Joe Burrow appears to be in trouble
Bengals rookie QB Joe Burrow suffered a devastating knee injury in week 11 of last season that tore both his ACL and MCL. Burrow by all accounts has worked his butt off to be ready for week 1 and should be commended for that. Unfortunately for Burrow he goes up against a Vikings defense led by Mike Zimmer that will make life difficult for him in his first game back. The Bengals still enter the season with major question marks about their offensive line just as they did in 2020. The lack of talent on the line will be ripe pickings for the Vikings as they will throw well timed and designed blitzes at Burrow. There will be a question of how much mobility Burrow will have in first game back and whether he will have his natural processing ability up to full gear. If he does not and suffers a mediocre game it would be unwise for those to project this will be an issue all season long. Burrow should get more comfortable as the season progresses and hopefully the offensive line will as well.
New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers-Sunday 1PM
The Jets pass rush is dominant
The Panthers offer up arguably one of the more tenuous offensive line situations in the league. With a handful of new players and a real lack of talent aside from OT Taylor Moton, teams will be teeing off on this unit throughout the season. Even though the Jets lost EDGE Carl Lawson due to a torn ACL they still have DT Quinnen Williams. However from a talent/production perspective I do not expect this unit to be better than average in 2021. In 2020 per Football Outsiders the defense had an adjusted sack rate of 8.1% which was just 27th in the league. I have good expectations that HC Robert Saleh and DC Joe Cullen will have this unit well coached and ready to go. I just wouldn’t expect the Jets to have a dominant pass rush throughout the season as they might do in this game.
Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans-Sunday 1PM
The Titans offense still is a high quality unit
While I do not doubt the talents of receivers AJ Brown, Julio Jones, RB Derrick Henry, and the solid play of QB Ryan Tannehill. I do not think going up against Arizona will be the best gauge of how well this offense will perform throughout the season. The Cardinals have one of the least talented secondaries in the league with only safety Budda Baker and CB Byron Murphy to speak of as clear talents. The Cardinals also played at one of the highest rates in man coverage last season, which could spell disaster as Brown and Jones will look to make explosive plays. The run defense could also be an issue against the Titans as the Cardinals interior defensive line lacks a real presence to stop Derrick Henry and the Titans road grading offensive line. The Titans do however need to prove that without OC Arthur Smith they can still continue to be one of the more efficient offenses in football. I do not trust that this game against the Cardinals will be the one to show that.
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs-Sunday 4:25 PM
The Browns are still not close to the Chiefs in the AFC hierarchy
If the Browns were to lose to the Chiefs by double digits this Sunday look for a wave of commentary that the Browns are still not ready to make the leap into the top of the AFC. Chiefs HC Andy Reid is currently 16-0 in his past 16 games in September, and that frankly should continue on Sunday. From the Browns perspective, I would be more concerned on how sound their defense plays. There are a lot of new additions defense that may take some time to gel and get comfortable within the new scheme implemented by Joe Woods. Playing arguably the most dynamic offense in the league for the first time as a complete unit is a tough ask for nearly anyone. The hope has to rely on the Browns pass rush led by Myles Garrett and intriguing new additions in Jadeveon Clowney and DT Malik Jackson to make Mahomes as uncomfortable as possible. Nonetheless, the Browns by season’s end will be a better, more complete team than the one we see on Sunday.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots-Sunday 4:25 PM
Mac Jones or Tua Tagovailoa do not have productive games
If either of these quarterbacks have lackluster games on Sunday there will be erroneous speculation if they are the right men for the job. Tagovailoa had a mediocre rookie season where he was thrust into starting role that he was simply not ready for.6 Now with a full normalized offseason, clear improvements to the weaponry around him in receivers Will Fuller and 6th overall pick Jaylen Waddle, expectations for Tua are quite high. Mac Jones faces the weight of being the heir to Tom Brady and is the first rookie quarterback to start for Bill Belichick in week one. Jones so far has checked all the boxes this offseason and by any indication seems to be ready for the massive hurdle ahead of him with his poise on and off the field. Both of these quarterbacks face similar, well-coached defenses that will make life quite hard for them on Sunday. If either of them do not produce as expected everyone needs to take a breath and see what their respective situations are a handful of weeks down the road before rushing to conclusions.
Denver Broncos @ New York Giants-Sunday 4:25PM
The pass rushing duo of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb is fully realized
When the Broncos drafted Bradley Chubb fifth overall in the 2018 draft, they expected to form a highly dangerous second banana to the legendary Von Miller. Those dreams have not been realized yet as they have only played 20 games together out of 48 expected. Both players have suffered significant injuries leading to a disappointing outcome thus far. This Sunday the duo are set to tee off on a Giants offensive line that looks to be one of the worst in the league. Giants fourth overall pick in 2020 draft, OT Andrew Thomas did not meet expectations in his rookie season, and so far in preseason that trend will seem to continue. Right tackle Matt Peart a third round pick in the same draft was projected to be the starter but was evidently beaten out by veteran Nate Solder who did not play last season due to COVID. I would expect Miller and Chubb to take advantage of what is a clear matchup issue for the Giants, but would just hold off saying they are going to be a dominant duo before more games are played and they stay healthy.
Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints-Sunday 4:25PM
Green Bay’s defense still appears to be a weak spot
The talent on the Packers defense is one of the best in the league bar none. Unfortunately for the past couple of years under DC Mike Pettine the talent was not used properly which led to Pettine being fired after the Packers lost the NFC championship game to the Buccaneers. Now with DC Joe Barry look for the defense more modern NFL tendencies utilizing the safeties to play a high quality brand of versatile football, the defensive line to be aggressive while stopping the run, and linebackers to be put in favorable situations. This a lot to ask for a defense to coalesce in their first game together, and could prove to let up a fair amount of points against offensive wunderkind Sean Payton. While I believe there is a sizeable possibility the reverse occurs7 and Green Bay’s defense stifles QB Jameis Winston, either way I wouldn’t overreact. Both of these teams are well-coached and will tune out any immediate outside perceptions.
Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams-Sunday 8:20PM
The Rams defense remains dominant despite offseason turnover
The Rams over the past 6 months have lost an incredible DC Brandon Staley All-Pro safety John Johnson, starting slot corner Troy Hill, starting nose tackle Michael Brockers, and rotational pass rusher Morgan Fox. While the Rams have brought in a quality defensive mind in Raheem Morris who looks to continue Staley’s defensive system and still retain the two best defensive players in the league with DT Aaron Donald and CB Jalen Ramsey some amount of regression is to be expected. However, this Sunday against the Chicago Bears look out for a dominant showing. The Bears offensive line is in shambles and with multiple players playing new positions. Aaron Donald could have at least 3 sacks and ungodly amount of pressures. Pressures that I do not expect Bears QB Andy Dalton to easily avoid. On paper it is just going to be a hellscape for this Bears offense to produce points, and will heavily rely on superstar WR Allen Robinson to bail them out. Nonetheless, I would not say this Rams defense is as good as last year’s after one showing against what projects to be a mediocre offense at best.
Baltimore Ravens @ Las Vegas Raiders-Monday 8:15PM
The Raiders cornerback group looks vastly improved
A true detriment to the extremely high potential of the Baltimore Ravens offense since has Lamar Jackson has been quarterback is the lack of offensive weapons specifically at wide receiver. The Ravens smartly drafted Minnesota WR Rashod Bateman8 in the first round, however he will be out until at least week four. The Ravens still have Marquise Brown but he is not equipped to be a firm number one receiver in an offense, and Sammy Watkins is an average number two receiver at best. This very well could work in favor for the Raiders secondary specifically the cornerbacks Casey Hayward and Trayvon Mullen. Hayward was a quality veteran addition that still clearly has the talent to hang with whomever the Ravens throw at him. Trayvon Mullen, is a young, lanky corner with a burgeoning skill set that could blossom this season. On paper, these matchups still look like possible wins for the Raiders corners. I would heed caution to overreacting to this. Let’s wait and see how these corners and frankly the entire secondary does against a more potent passing game.
One that will use multiple tight ends and be a bit more condensed in their formations.
Such as the Jaguars.
LT-Rashawn Slater (1st Round DC), LG Matt Feiler (FA from Pittsburgh), C Corey Linsley (FA from Green Bay, RG Oday Aboushi (FA from Detroit)
Who is recovering from a somewhat serious COVID scare.
Either due to a Garoppolo injury or mediocre play
No one. Not even the Dolphins offensive coordinator expected Tua to be named starter. As Ryan Fitzpatrick seemed to have a firm stranglehold as a team leader and their starting QB.
I almost picked the overreaction for this game to be the Saints offense/Jameis looking lethargic.
I had Bateman as a fringe top 10 overall prospect in the 2020 Draft.